Football Prediction Accuracy Study — The Real Hit Rate by Market

Most football prediction sites show you their wins. We track every call — wins and losses — in a public record. So we did something the tipster industry mostly avoids: we counted.

Across 2,000 settled public predictions, here is the hit rate by market. No cherry-picking, no hidden bets — the same record our channel members watch land in real time.

The real hit rate by market

Overall across all 2,000 public picks: 72%.

What the data actually says

The pattern is clear and it holds across thousands of picks: the edge is in the goals markets. Over 1.5 Goals and the Under markets land far more reliably than a straight match-winner call, because "will there be at least two goals" is a more answerable question than "who wins." Both Teams To Score sits right behind them.

Match-result (win) calls still land 61% of the time — comfortably ahead of a coin flip — but they're our hardest market, exactly as you'd expect. Picking the winner of a football match is genuinely difficult, and any site promising 90%+ on match winners is selling you a story, not data.

This is why we lead with goals markets, not match winners. The numbers told us where the edge is, so that is where we focus.

Why we publish our losses

A prediction record only means something if it includes the misses. A site that only shows winners is showing you a survivorship illusion. Our record — every pick, settled on the 90-minute result — is tracked openly, which is the only honest way to judge whether a prediction service is worth following.

You can see today's calls and the live record on our results page. If you run a football site and want to show your readers an honest, auto-updating predictions feed, we even offer an embeddable widget.

Method, briefly

Every pick is generated by our model — five years of historical data, expected goals, recent form and team news — posted publicly before kickoff, and settled on the 90-minute scoreline only (no extra time, no penalties). The sample above is our settled public record. As it grows the per-market rates move slightly, but the shape — goals beat winners — has been consistent the whole way.